A finite mixture approach to tactical voting

An illustration of choosing from a full choice set and a restricted consideration set. The alternatives are a,b,c, and d. The intensity of their shading represents the 'utility' of these alternatives. The viable alternatives are a and b. A paper entitled “Separating Tactical from Sincere Voting: A Finite-Mixture Discrete-Choice Modelling Approach” was presented at the Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association 2014 in Chicago, Ill. It presents a novel approach to uncover tactical voting from responses in electoral survey studies. The basic idea is that the distribution of observed voting decisions… [read more]

Expectation formation and tactical voting in the UK

tvoting-o-types-b2 A paper entitled “Information Flows, Expectation Formation, and Tactical Voting” was presented at the ECPR General Conference 2013 at the Université de Bordeaux. It examines how results in the previous election (at constituency level) and parties’ current popularity (as expressed in their performance in opinion polls) influence the formation of expectations about parties’ chances at… [read more]

Average political positions of party families

partfam-plot-pres A paper entitled “On the Distinctiveness of Party Families” was presented at the 2014 General Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association. In this paper I describe the average positions (and the development of these) of the party families commonly known in the comparative study of European parties. In this paper I distinguish between three… [read more]

Method for reconstructing political positions from political texts published in Political Analysis

Positions of the Labour Party and the Conservative Party of the UK in 1964 A paper on “A Dynamic State-Space Model of Coded Political Texts” has been published as advance access article in Political Analysis. Accompanying this article, there is a data set with positions of parties in the economic and social policy spaces, reconstructed from Comparative Manifestos Project data using the method in the article. The data set… [read more]

Version 0.96 of R package “memisc” released

A new version of my memisc package is available on this website and hopefully soon on CRAN. The following changes were made since the last patchlevel of the previous version: 2013-01-26: Included getSummary methods for objects of classes “ivreg”, “tobit” (from package “AER”), “hurdle”, “zeroinfl” (from package “pscl”), “betareg” (from package “betareg”), “multinom” (from package… [read more]